FEDS Paper: Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap

Matteo Barigozzi, Claudio Lissona, and Matteo LucianiWe measure the Euro Area (EA) output gap and potential output using a non-stationary dynamic factor model estimated on a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. From 2012 to 2023, we estimate that the EA economy was tighter than the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund estimate, suggesting that the slow EA growth is the result of a potential output issue, not a business cycle issue.

FEDS Paper: Life-Cycle Portfolio Choices and Heterogeneous Stock Market Expectations

Mateo Velásquez-GiraldoSurvey measurements of households' expectations about U.S. equity returns show substantial heterogeneity and large departures from the historical distribution of actual returns. The average household perceives a lower probability of positive returns and a greater probability of extreme returns than history has exhibited. I build a life-cycle model of saving and portfolio choices that incorporates beliefs estimated to match these survey measurements of expectations.

FEDS Paper: A Market Interpretation of Treatment Effects

Robert Minton and Casey B. MulliganMarkets, likened to an invisible hand, often appear to contradict econometric assumptions that rule out spillovers of one person’s treatment on another’s outcomes. This paper provides a simple statistical framework highlighting that controls are indirectly affected by the treatment through the market. Further, the effect of the treatment on the treated reveals only part of the consequence for the treated of treating the entire market.

FEDS Paper: The Fed's Discount Window in "Normal" Times (Revised)

Huberto M. Ennis and Elizabeth KleeWe study transaction-level data of bank borrowings at the Federal Reserve’s discount window from 2010 to 2019. We merge these data with quarterly information on bank balance sheets and income statements. To aid in the interpretation of our empirical analysis, we also develop a detailed model of the decision of banks to borrow from various sources, including the discount window.

The geography of capital allocation in the euro area

We assess Euro Area financial integration correcting for the role of “onshore offshore financial centers” (OOFCs) within the Euro Area. The OOFCs of Luxembourg, Ireland, and the Netherlands serve dual roles as both hubs of investment fund intermediation and centers of securities issuance by foreign firms. We provide new estimates of Euro Area countries’ bilateral portfolio investments which look through both roles, attributing the wealth held via investment funds to the underlying holders and linking securities issuance to the ultimate parent firms.

Trust in central banks

Trust in the central bank is an essential ingredient for a successful conduct of monetary policy. However, for many central banks trust has recently declined, for instance in the wake of the post-pandemic inflation surge, due to large errors in central banks’ inflation forecasts, or given problems when exiting from forward guidance. The rapid, substantial and persistent erosion of trust makes it clear that trust needs to be earned continuously. This paper reviews why trust is important, what determines it and how central banks can enhance it.

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