External finance premium: market finance versus bank finance

This paper is the first to simultaneously examine firms’ market-based and bank-based external finance premia and investigate the behavior of corporate bond markets in the United States and the euro area, with a focus on country- and state-level heterogeneity in monetary unions. Using a unique micro-level dataset, we show that market finance premia, measured with corporate bond spreads, are remarkably similar in both the euro area and the US in terms of how little they depend on the issuer’s state or country of origin.

The supply chain spillovers of private equity buyouts

We study how private equity (PE) buyouts propagate through supply chains using unique firm-to-firm transactions data from Belgium. In normal times, suppliers of PE-backed firms outperform their peers by 5%–10% in employment and sales growth, primarily due to increased input demand from PE-backed customers rather than knowledge spillovers or other mechanisms. In economic downturns, however, this outperformance is attenuated and suppliers compress markups by around 8% as PE investors intensify bargaining pressure and reconfigure supply chains to extract cost savings.

Coles’ discounts misled shoppers, court rules. It could face hundreds of millions in fines

Coles has been found to have misled its supermarket customers over discounts – and could now face hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties.

In a landmark case, Federal Court Justice Michael O'Bryan found 13 out of 14 sample sale tickets examined in the case had not offered genuine discounts, because Coles had not sold the products at a higher price for a reasonable period before promoting them with “Down Down” discounts.

The role of judgement in supervisory scores and additional capital requirements assigned to banks

We empirically analyse the role of judgement in assigning overall scores by the euro area supervisors as part of the yearly Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP), which evaluates banks’ risks and sets supervisory actions. We also analyse its role in shaping the drivers of the Pillar 2 capital requirement (P2R) that banks must fulfil. We find that supervisors actively adjust the weight of the components of the overall score to reflect qualitative information, thereby smoothing fluctuations in the final assessment.

The role of biodiversity risk in shaping bank lending decisions

We examine whether banks incorporate firm-level biodiversity risk into their lending decisions. Using a large sample of syndicated loans matched to firm-level biodiversity risk measures, we document that borrowers with higher biodiversity risk face significantly higher loan spreads. Evidence on loan volumes is weaker, suggesting that banks primarily adjust along the pricing margin rather than restricting credit supply.

Wildfire cashflow shocks

This paper studies the impact on cashflows and financial decisions of firms affected by wildfires, focusing on the wildfires that occurred in Portugal in 2017. Using establishment-level data from the hotel industry combined with geospatial information on wildfire proximity and land use, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to study both directly and indirectly affected firms.

Supply chain uncertainty, energy prices, and inflation

Using U.S. and Euro area data, we document that (i) the pass-through of energy prices to inflation is state-dependent - stronger when supply chain uncertainty is elevated – and (ii) in such states, energy prices become more informative about logistical conditions. We develop a model in which firms combine energy and a specialized input transported through a capacity-constrained transportation network. When congestion binds, energy remains available in local markets at a premium, whereas the specialized input is subject to delivery delays.

AI is Hungry for Power and You are Footing the Bill

The same technology that promises efficiency in offices is fueled by a system that is making life more costly for everyday workers. Part of “AI and the Future of the American Worker,” a series on how artificial intelligence is impacting labor, power, and the meaning of work.
You can’t open a news site without tripping over a grand declaration about how AI is remaking the economy. But often there’s a crucial part of the story missing: Who exactly is paying for the sprawling, power-guzzling machinery it needs to run on?

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