IFDP Paper: Imperfect Information and Slow Recoveries in the Labor Market

Anushka MitraThe unemployment rate remains elevated long after recessions, a persistence that standard search-and-matching models cannot explain. I show that noise shocks—expectational errors due to the noise in received signals about aggregate shocks—account for much of this sluggishness. Using a structural VAR, I find that absent noise shocks unemployment would have recovered to its pre-recession level six quarters earlier over 1968–2019.

IFDP Paper: Clean Money, High Costs?

Viktors StebunovsA cornerstone of the law-and-finance literature is that stronger institutions reduce financial intermediation costs. Using global data on cross-border payment costs, I show this relationship can reverse in heavily regulated sectors. Anti-money laundering risks have larger cost effects in advanced economies with strong enforcement than in developing countries with weak enforcement, despite the former having lower underlying risks.

Rational inattention and information provision experiments

In surveys with information provision experiments, researchers can observe how people change beliefs, and sometimes also actions, after having been confronted with information. This article interprets information provision experiments from the perspective of the theory of rational inattention, discussing what survey findings tell us about economic behaviour outside the survey and deriving implications for central bank communication.

Economists Warn: Trump’s Intel Move Looks Like Performance, Not Policy

Two economists who have studied Intel warn that Trump’s move to take a stake in the company amounts to flashy optics, incoherent strategy, and a creeping politicization of economic policy.
Intel, once dominant in semiconductors, has flailed amid manufacturing problems, leadership changes, and fierce global competition. And unfortunately, it matters because in a world where chips are the new oil, controlling them means controlling power -- economic, military, and geopolitical.

From words to deeds – incorporating climate risks into sovereign credit ratings

We investigate the impact of climate risks on sovereign credit ratings worldwide. Our analysis shows that higher temperature anomalies and more frequent natural disasters – measures of physical risk – correlate with lower credit ratings. We find that long-term shifts in climate patterns (“chronic risk”) primarily affect advanced economies, while the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events (“acute risk”) matters more for emerging economies. However, the estimated impact of both types of risk on credit ratings is low and the economic effects are negligible.

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