Why do we need to strengthen climate adaptations? Scenarios and financial lines of defence

Adaptation needs are vast, rising fast and difficult to determine in their entirety, especially with uncertain adverse scenarios due to climate inertia and implementation lags. Adaptation is hindered by a lack of a unified understanding of what it necessitates; the challenge in pointing out its costs, benefits, and residual risks; insufficiently prescriptive policy and legal frameworks; and the growing financing gap.

The “doom loop” and default incentives

The “doom loop” or “sovereign-bank nexus” has been a key factor in the European debt crisis, driven by feedback between fiscal sustainability risks and financial stability. This Research Bulletin revisits the doom loop, examining strategic default incentives and the unintended effects of policy interventions. While limiting banks’ exposure to sovereign debt can break the doom loop, it may increase default risks by weakening governments’ repayment incentives.

Nowcasting Made Easier: a toolbox for economists

We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting models and improving the policy analysis. For model creation, the toolbox automatizes testing input variables, assessing model accuracy, and checking robustness to the Covid period.

A Heart Attack and Stroke Drug That Saves Lives Exists—But American Patients May Be Left Behind by Profit-Driven Healthcare

Dr. Victor Gurewich, a researcher and Harvard Medical School faculty member since 1965, discovered a breakthrough drug treatment for heart attacks and strokes with the potential to save millions, but institutional resistance and a U.S. healthcare system that puts profits over patients are keeping it out of reach.
Chest tightness. Arm pain. Panic. The warning signs hit hard, and for a moment, the thought of a heart attack is no longer just a fear—it’s happening.

FEDS Paper: Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy

Ding Dong, Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Min WeiWe present empirical evidence that household inflation disagreement weakens the power of forward guidance and conventional monetary policy shocks. The attenuation effect is stronger when inflation forecasts are positively skewed and it is not driven by endogenous responses of inflation disagreement to contemporaneous shocks. These empirical observations can be rationalized by a model featuring heterogeneous beliefs about the central banks' inflation target.

Monetary policy pass-through to consumer prices: evidence from granular price data

We document that about 33% of the core inflation basket in the euro area is sensitive to monetary policy shocks. We assess potential theoretical mechanisms driving the sensitivity. Our results suggest that items of a discretionary nature, as reflected in a higher share in the consumption baskets of richer households, and those with larger role of credit in financing their purchase, tend to be more sensitive.Non-sensitive items are more frequently subject to administered prices and include non-discretionary items such as rents and medical services.

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