Women in Africa are often framed as especially vulnerable to climate change. Our earlier research suggested that women entrepreneurs often face a “triple differential vulnerability” to climate risk compared to men.
We study the impact of cyclical systemic risks on banks’ profitability in the euro area within a panel quantile regression model, with the ultimate goal to inform the calibration of the Countercyclical Capital buffer (CCyB). Compared to previous studies, we augment our model to control for unobserved bank-specific characteristics and year-fixed effects and find a lower degree of heterogeneity in the estimated effects across the conditional distribution of bank returns on assets.
This study examines how dismantling Mafia-connected firms affects banks’ lending practices. Using a unique dataset of 667 such firms and loan-level data from the European Central Bank, our analysis shows that anti-Mafia operations precede an increase in bank loans to businesses that operate in areas that are directly affected by these actions. Specifically, overall loan volumes increase by approximately 0.8 percent, which translates to an increase of €1.38 billion in bank loans to these firms.
This Market Notice confirms the recalibrated parameters of the Indexed Long-Term Repo (ILTR) operation. In line with the Bank’s transition to a repo-led, demand driven operational framework for providing reserves, which ILTR operations are central to, the Bank is announcing an increase in the total amount of reserves available in each ILTR auction, an increase in the quantity of reserves available at fixed minimum spreads, and a gentler upward sloping supply curve than previously to ensure that clearing spreads only rise gradually.
Daniel Barth and Stacey SchreftThis article refines the concept of black swans, typically described as highly unlikely and catastrophic events, by clearly distinguishing between knowable and unknowable events. By emphasizing that black swans are “unknown unknowns,” the article highlights that the realization of new black swans cannot be prevented and motivates a need for policies that build the financial system's resilience to unforeseeable crises.
Gorkem Bostanci, Omer Koru, and Sergio VillalvazoWe argue that inflationary shocks affect allocative efficiency by changing the rate and the characteristics of workers’ job-to-job transitions. First, using monetary policy shocks and survey data on search effort, we empirically show that a one percentage point rise in inflation increases job-to-job transitions by up to 4.5%, and workers with higher inflation expectations are more likely to search and do so more effectively.
Carlos Castilla/ShutterstockA week ago, the Australian Financial Review released this year’s “Rich List”. It reported the number of billionaires in Australia increased from 150 to 166 between 2024 and 2025.
Olesya V. Grishchenko, Franck Moraux, and Olga PakulyakWe analyze evolution of inflation expectations in the euro area (EA) using a novel measure of inflation expectations implied by the French nominal and inflation-indexed bonds. Overall, we find that EA inflation expectations have been relatively well anchored in the 2004–2019 sample but have been somewhat sensitive to the incoming macroeconomic news and monetary policy shocks in the sample that includes the COVID-19 pandemic.
In Treasury markets, there are no libertarians, only grateful recipients of single-payer insurance for ailing financial markets.
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Believe in your own decision-making. Feodora Chiosea/Getty Images Plus The Little Engine That Could wasn’t the most powerful train, but she believed in herself. The story goes that, as she set off to climb a steep mountain, she repeated: “I think I can, I think I can.”
