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How to conduct joint Bayesian inference in VAR models?

08/20/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

When economic analysis requires simultaneous inference across multiple variables and time horizons, this paper shows that conventional pointwise quantiles in Bayesian structural vector autoregressions significantly understate the uncertainty of impulse responses. The performance of recently proposed joint inference methods, which produce noticeably different error band estimates, is evaluated, and calibration routines are suggested to ensure that they achieve the intended nominal probability coverage.

Economic Data Has Taken a Dark Turn. That Doesn’t Mean a Crash Is Near.

08/19/2025 New York Times USA

Inflation is up and job creation down, but the U.S. economy could still pull through without too much pain.

Reverse discrimination? In spite of the MAGA bluster over DEI, data shows white Americans are still advantaged

08/19/2025 The Conversation USA

Two big assumptions underlie President Donald Trump’s attack on diversity, equity and inclusion policies. The first is that discrimination against people of color is a thing of the past.

Misspelled names may give brands a Lyft – if the spelling isn’t too weird

08/19/2025 The Conversation USA

Misspelled brand names can be catchy – but don't always connect with consumers. AP Photo/David ZalubowskiConsumers don’t mind when companies use misspelled words – think Lyft for “lift” or Froot Loops for “fruit loops” – as their brand names, as long as the alterations aren’t too extreme and the misspelling makes sense.

Unlocking growth? EU investment programmes and firm performance

08/19/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This study evaluates the effectiveness of EU Cohesion Policy as an investment programme, employing a novel dataset that links firm-level data from Orbis with project-level information from the Kohesio database. It focuses on two key questions: (1) Which firms receive EU funding? (2) How does receiving EU funding affect firm performance? By applying a logit model and a local projection difference-in-differences approach, we provide new insights into the allocation mechanisms of EU Cohesion Policy funds and their firm-level impact.

Rebranding equity as ‘belonging’ won’t advance justice — it’s DEI rollback in disguise

08/18/2025 The Conversation News & Comments

Since 2024, pushback against diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) has gathered momentum across North America. This year, that retreat has taken on a new form: the rebranding of “equity” with softer, less contentious terms like “belonging” or “community.”

Data that taxpayers have paid for and rely on is disappearing – here’s how it’s happening and what you can do about it

08/18/2025 The Conversation USA

Many U.S. government agencies collect data and make it publicly available. Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesPeople rely on data from federal agencies every day – often without realizing it.

Macroprudential and monetary policy interaction: the role of early activation of the countercyclical capital buffer

08/18/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Amid changes in the global macro-financial environment, macroprudential policy within the banking union and beyond has increasingly prioritised the proactive enhancement of resilience. This article argues that this shift towards a more pre-emptive implementation of macroprudential policy has enhanced its complementarity with monetary policy.

The ‘wrong kind of sorry’: will a record fine for Qantas deter other companies from breaking the law?

08/18/2025 The Conversation News & Comments

On Monday, the Federal Court of Australia handed Qantas a record fine of A$90 million for breaching the Fair Work Act by unlawfully terminating the employment of 1,820 ground workers during the pandemic.

A New Way to Reduce Children’s Deaths: Cash

08/18/2025 New York Times USA

Simply giving money to poor families at certain times reduced deaths among young children by nearly half, a new study found.

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