Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - July 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is responsible for making decisions about Bank Rate.
Subjective earnings and employment dynamics
We develop a new approach to estimating earnings, job, and employment dynamics using subjective expectations data from the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. These data provide beliefs about future earnings offers and acceptance probabilities, offering direct information on counterfactual outcomes and enabling identification under weaker assumptions. Our framework avoids biases from selection and unobserved heterogeneity that affect models using realized outcomes.
Let the tree decide: FABART. A non-parametric factor model for nonlinear oil shock transmission
The question of how oil supply news shocks transmit to real activity, financial conditions, and regional labor markets is back at the center of the macroeconomic research agenda. To answer this question, we introduce the Factor Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (FABART) model, a nonlinear factor-augmented vector autoregression model, and apply it to a large U.S. macro-financial dataset with externally identified oil supply news shocks.
Subjective earnings and employment dynamics
We develop a new approach to estimating earnings, job, and employment dynamics using subjective expectations data from the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. These data provide beliefs about future earnings offers and acceptance probabilities, offering direct information on counterfactual outcomes and enabling identification under weaker assumptions. Our framework avoids biases from selection and unobserved heterogeneity that affect models using realized outcomes.
Let the tree decide: FABART. A non-parametric factor model for nonlinear oil shock transmission
The question of how oil supply news shocks transmit to real activity, financial conditions, and regional labor markets is back at the center of the macroeconomic research agenda. To answer this question, we introduce the Factor Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (FABART) model, a nonlinear factor-augmented vector autoregression model, and apply it to a large U.S. macro-financial dataset with externally identified oil supply news shocks.
Gianni Infantino wants to sell the World Cup – but it’s not his to sell
It’s clear from the generally horrified reaction to Gianni Infantino’s plan to turn the World Cup into an investment vehicle that the Fifa boss has gone too far.
Better guacamole? How avocado import rules helped cut Mexico’s water pollution – it holds lessons for future US trade deals
Growing avocados can contribute to water pollution, but there are ways to reduce the harm. Estúdio Bloom/Unsplash, CC BYAt picnics and World Cup watch parties across the United States this summer, people have been reaching for bowls of chips and guacamole.
Family feud over Chadwick Boseman’s estate highlights 3 lessons for grieving families
Taylor Simone Ledward accompanies Chadwick Boseman to the 25th Screen Actors Guild Awards in 2019. Al Seib/Los Angeles Times via Getty ImagesChadwick Boseman’s death from colon cancer in 2020 shocked his fans.
A SPOT in the dark: using AI to assess financial stability risks
Financial stability risks consist of two distinct components: vulnerabilities and possible trigger events. While there has been considerable progress regarding the measurement of vulnerabilities, the assessment of possible trigger events remains largely qualitative. To fill this gap, we employ Large Language Models to extract information about the Severity and Probability Of potential Trigger events (SPOT) from a large dataset of financial news articles over the period2005 – 2026.
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