Historically, stronger dynamics in services prices than in non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) prices have led to a persistent positive gap between services and NEIG inflation rates. However, the relative price of goods versus services rose rapidly in 2021-2022 before subsequently falling back.
The use of artificial intelligence (AI) models has grown rapidly in recent years. This box explores how these models could affect energy demand in the future. Over the period from 2022 to 2026, the AI-related rise in global electricity consumption is projected to equal around 4% of the EU’s total electricity consumption and is likely to be met by either natural gas power plants or renewables. While this increase is significant in absolute terms, it is expected to have a limited impact on gas prices given the vast size of global natural gas markets.
AI has the potential to fuel historic levels of wealth concentration, leaving workers behind while a handful of companies profit. Or we can choose policies that steer us toward shared prosperity. The future is still up to us.
The flourishing Black business district in Detroit, Mich., photographed in 1942. Arthur S. Siegel via the Library of Congress, CC BY-NDBlack businesses were essential to facilitating the Great Migration of African Americans out of the South between the 1910s and 1960s.
The flourishing Black business district in Detroit, Mich., photographed in 1942. Arthur S. Siegel via the Library of Congress, CC BY-NDBlack businesses were essential to facilitating the Great Migration of African Americans out of the South between the 1910s and 1960s.
Donald Trump’s first term as president saw some of the largest mass protests seen in the U.S. in over 50 years, from the 2017 Women’s March to the 2020 protests after George Floyd’s murder.
This box compares euro area export performance in high-tech sectors with that of China and the United States. While the euro area has maintained market share in several fast-growing high-tech sectors, it has underperformed in large medium-high-tech sectors. The latter, by virtue of their size, drive overall export growth and account for most of the euro area’s losses and China’s gains in export market shares.
Business investment has grown less dynamically in the euro area than in the United States since the early 2000s, but in the aftermath of the pandemic the differential has been particularly marked. This box breaks business investment down by asset type and assesses some of the factors behind this disparity. Analysis suggests that demand, competitiveness, confidence and policy efficiency all contribute to higher tangible investment in the United States. Weaker investment growth in intangibles in the euro area seems to be related to less innovation at the firm level.
We analyze the impact of negative reference rates on the interest rate behavior of more than 500 Austrian banks from 2009Q1 to 2021Q4. Using panel vector error correction analysis with the Engle-Granger procedure in two steps, we establish a cointegration vector that links bank-specific lending rates, deposit rates, the 3-month Euribor, and the ECB Deposit Facility Rate. We propose two hypotheses to evaluate the effects of negative 3-month Euribor on this vector.
We analyze the impact of negative reference rates on the interest rate behavior of more than 500 Austrian banks from 2009Q1 to 2021Q4. Using panel vector error correction analysis with the Engle-Granger procedure in two steps, we establish a cointegration vector that links bank-specific lending rates, deposit rates, the 3-month Euribor, and the ECB Deposit Facility Rate. We propose two hypotheses to evaluate the effects of negative 3-month Euribor on this vector.
