On-the-job search in Europe and the U.S.: precautionary vs. job ladder motives

While employer-to-employer (E2E) transitions are by now well-documented, these data alone cannot reveal what drives mobility: who searches, why, and how search translates into transitions. Using novel panel data from the ECB and NY Fed consumer expectations surveys, we provide the first systematic cross-country analysis of on-the job search (OJS) and E2E transitions across eleven euro area countries and the U.S. Our data uniquely include direct measures of OJS and its motives (job loss expectations for precautionary, pay satisfaction for job ladder) for all workers, not just searchers.

Kyrgyzstan’s Dordoi Bazaar: a world made from shipping containers and a city within a city

When I left Ainura’s container-shop at the Dordoi Bazaar in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, I found the market eerily quiet. I had not noticed the passing of time, while she generously shared her life story with me.

Walking towards the mini-bus stop at the square in front of the bazaar, the echo of her words mixed with the end-of-day soundscape at Dordoi: the heavy slam of container-shops’ metal doors and the resonant clang of heavy padlocks clicking into place.

Feeling the heat unevenly: energy prices and household consumption

This box examines the mechanisms behind the aggregate and distributional effects of energy price shocks on euro area households, taking its cue from the recent surge in energy prices following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. Drawing on a quantitative heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model calibrated to the euro area, it shows that energy price shocks reduce aggregate consumption through real income losses.

The transmission of shocks across sectors and the dynamics of sectoral prices

This paper studies the dynamics of U.S. sectoral producer prices in a large Bayesian Vector Auto Regression (BVAR) model where the Input-Output (IO) matrix is used to structure their long-run relationships. The model provides evidence of a sectoral spillover channel in driving headline inflation without imposing such a mechanism in the model’s structure.

The transmission of shocks across sectors and the dynamics of sectoral prices

This paper studies the dynamics of U.S. sectoral producer prices in a large Bayesian Vector Auto Regression (BVAR) model where the Input-Output (IO) matrix is used to structure their long-run relationships. The model provides evidence of a sectoral spillover channel in driving headline inflation without imposing such a mechanism in the model’s structure.

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