This study applies a Local Linear Forest (LLF) for wage forecasting in France. The LLF outperforms benchmarks such as Random Walk (RW), Ridge Regressions (RR) and Random Forests (RF). We also show that adding foreign predictors (i.e. measures of real activity, price and wage pressures from Germany and Italy) to French economic variables significantly improves wage predictions in France.
High-frequency interest rate surprises around Fed announcements do not identify monetary policy (MP) shocks if markets are imperfectly informed. Instead, they can also reflect central bank information (CBI) shocks, when the Fed assesses the economy differently, and Fed-response-to-news (FRN) shocks, when markets misperceive the policy rule.
This study applies a Local Linear Forest (LLF) for wage forecasting in France. The LLF outperforms benchmarks such as Random Walk (RW), Ridge Regressions (RR) and Random Forests (RF). We also show that adding foreign predictors (i.e. measures of real activity, price and wage pressures from Germany and Italy) to French economic variables significantly improves wage predictions in France.
High-frequency interest rate surprises around Fed announcements do not identify monetary policy (MP) shocks if markets are imperfectly informed. Instead, they can also reflect central bank information (CBI) shocks, when the Fed assesses the economy differently, and Fed-response-to-news (FRN) shocks, when markets misperceive the policy rule.
What does modern school privatization owe to Virginia’s fight against desegregation? A little-known history traces how segregationists and emerging libertarian ideas converged around publicly funded private schools, creating a political and intellectual blueprint with consequences far beyond the 1950s.
We keep talking about the impact of AI in the classroom, but even more pressing is whether children have the security to learn to begin with. The future workforce needs human beings who are healthy, stable, and capable of imagining a life beyond survival. *From the “AI and the Future of the American Worker,” a series on how artificial intelligence is impacting labor, power, and the meaning of work.
The Traitors has become essential viewing for millions of fans. The TV game show, in which a group of “faithfuls” try to identify a smaller number of hidden traitors, is all about truth and lies.
And it looks very easy from the sofa. For the 2026 celebrity version, contestants including singer James Blunt, mathematician Hannah Fry, broadcaster Amol Rajan and actors Bella Ramsey and Richard E. Grant, will have been working on their game plan.
Delivery-only kitchens prepare meals for customers who may never see where their food is made. Just dance/ShutterstockWhen you order food through an app, how much do you know about where you’re purchasing from? This could be a restaurant on the local high street, or one located in a warehouse on a faraway industrial estate.
Our Financial Policy Committee (FPC) meets to identify risks to financial stability and agree policy actions aimed at safeguarding the resilience of the UK financial system.
David M. Byrne, Robert Kurtzman, and Heidi L. WilliamsWe consider official and alternative data sources for measuring and projecting the role of U.S. manufacturing in the global semiconductor manufacturing industry.
