Inflation forecasts and their risks are key for monetary policy decisions. The strategy review concluded in 2021 highlighted how most Eurosystem models used to forecast inflation are linear. Linear models assume that changes in, for example, wages, always have the same fixed, proportional effect on inflation. A new machine learning model, recently developed at the ECB, captures very general forms of non-linearity, such as a changing sensitivity of inflation dynamics to prevailing economic circumstances.

Climate change has implications for price stability and the work of central banks. It may increase the volatility and heterogeneity of inflation, and hotter summers may lead to more frequent and persistent upward pressures on food and services inflation. Our empirical study provides evidence for the four largest euro area economies and outlines the relationship between temperature and inflation.

On the basis of insurance companies’ bond investments, I examine how shifts in investors’ demand for corporate bonds affect non-financial bond issuers. When demand for their bonds increases, firms’ financing costs decrease, which encourages them to increase their bond debt and invest more. These effects crucially depend on how credit-constrained firms are. My findings emphasise the critical role that institutional investors play in shaping non-financial firms’ financing decisions and real economic activity.

Certain members of the bankruptcy academy and bar seem to have their knickers in a twist over the Supreme Court’s grant of certiorari to review the nonconsensual nondebtor releases in Purdue. Conventional wisdom is that SCOTUS is going to find that there's no statutory authority whatsoever for nonconsensual nondebtor releases outside of the asbestos context (expressio unius and Congress doesn't hide elephants in mouseholes....).
Let's be clear: nonconsensual nondebtor releases are not necessary to resolve mass tort cases.