Financial stability and macroprudential regulation under diagnostic expectations

Recent empirical findings (Bordalo et al., 2018, 2019; Greenwood et al., 2022) have vindicated the view thatsystemic risk in financial markets is also influenced by cognitive misperceptions about future economicdevelopments in addition to being influenced by financial frictions. Most of the literature on macroprudentialregulation, nonetheless, has omitted those misperceptions and instead has derived policy implicationsassuming rational expectations.

DOJ and DOE New Guidelines for Supporting Student Loan Discharge in Bankruptcy = More Student Loan Discharges?

The Department of Justice, in coordination with the Department of Education, has announced a new process for its handling of bankruptcy cases in which debtors seek an undue hardship student loan discharge. This new guidance has been a long time coming. In 2016, the DOE issued a request for information regarding evaluating undue hardship claims.

Binance's Custodial Arrangements: Whose Keys? Whose Coins?

For months, cryptocurrency FTX (and its majority owner, Sam Bankman-Fried) have been the lender of last resort in crypto markets and pretty much the only distressed acquirer around. Now we learn that FTX has itself failed and is getting scooped up in a distressed acquisition by Binance. Does this remind anyone of Bank of America's purchase of Merrill Lynch and Countrywide in 2008? We'll see if the transaction closes, but at the very least it poses the question of whether Binance stands on any stronger ground than FTX?

Central bank communication in times of high inflation

In 2022, consumer price inflation in the euro area has climbed to record highs. As a result, many households have increased their inflation expectations, thus increasing the risks of more persistent inflation in the future. Using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households as a laboratory, this column provides evidence that individuals who are shown ECB communication on the inflation outlook significantly reduce their inflation expectations. Furthermore, explaining the outlook verbally has a substantially larger effect than merely providing numerical projections. 

Top income inequality and tax policy

The share of pre-tax income flowing to the top of the UK income distribution is significantly higher than it was in the early 1980s. This column explains the nature of top incomes in the UK and how they are taxed. Overall, the authors argue, UK income taxes are progressive, with average tax rates rising with income. But incomes from business ownership and investment are taxed at lower rates than employment income. With a reformed tax base, there would be a strong case to align tax rates across different sources of income. 

Tracking US inequality in real time

Inequality statistics come with a lag relative to growth statistics. This column presents new real-time inequality statistics for the US, synchronised with growth statistics, which show that all income groups recovered their pre-crisis pre-tax income level within 20 months of the beginning of the Covid-induced recession. Covid-related transfers drastically but temporarily increased disposable incomes for the bottom 50%, well above their pre-Covid levels.

Divest or engage?

When pension giant ABP faced protests about its fossil fuel investment strategy, did it choose to exert pressure on oil companies or divest from them? Jeff Wurgler and Dirk Schoenmaker talk to Tim Phillips about how the finance sector can accelerate a green transition.

Temperature shocks and monetary policy in the US

How temperature dynamics affect the economy is key to understanding the impact of climate change on monetary policy. This column presents new evidence that local temperature fluctuations had aggregate effects on the US in the last 50 years. Results show that US-wide temperature shocks, constructed by weighting unexpected county-level temperature variations, reduced both GDP and consumer prices, inducing an expansionary monetary policy reaction and a revision of the Federal Reserve’s economic forecasts.

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