As of Oct. 1, 2026, states must pay more to run SNAP. AP Photo/Allison DinnerThe number of people enrolled in the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program is falling fast. The program formerly known as food stamps helped roughly 42 million Americans put food on the table in 2025.
As of June 2026, the most recent data available, the number of people enrolled in the program in the whole country had declined by almost 13% to 36.4 million. Among those no longer getting benefits are an estimated 1.5 million children.
What explains this decline?
President Donald Trump says a strong economy has driven down demand for the program.
It’s possible that some people have left the program because their incomes rose. But the enrollment decline has a lot to do with the big tax-and-spending package the president signed into law in July 2025.
States are struggling to keep up
For example, the law caused some immigrants residing legally in the country, such as refugees and those seeking asylum, to no longer be eligible for SNAP benefits.
In addition, more people enrolled in SNAP now may only get up to three months of benefits if they don’t work, engage in training programs or volunteer at least 80 hours a month. These work requirements previously applied only to adults up to the age of 54; that cutoff is rising to 64. Another change is that parents of older children ages 14-17 are now expected to meet these work requirements.
All states are phasing in these restrictions, but the number of people getting SNAP benefits is falling much faster in some states than others. That includes Arizona, where enrollment has fallen by almost half, along with Louisiana and Illinois, where it’s down by about one-fifth.
And now, states must pay more to run SNAP, which is federally funded but state-administered.
In my research on the history of SNAP, I’ve found that changes in the way states run their programs have a big impact on who can get help. States are struggling to adapt to new federal policies. As additional changes roll out, more families may lose access to SNAP.
Covering more of the administrative costs
As of Oct. 1, 2026, states have to pay 75% of all administrative costs, which include paying staff who manage the enrollment process and maintaining the program’s computer systems. Previously, states paid 50% of those costs. The federal government estimates that states and local governments will pay roughly US$17 billion more in administrative costs over the next five years.
In the 2027 fiscal year, which began on Oct. 1, California – with the largest population of any state – will be responsible for paying roughly $670 million more to run the program. Wyoming, with the smallest number of residents, will pay about $3 million more.
Costs will be shifted to local governments in nine of the 10 states where SNAP is administered by counties.
Looming changes tied to ‘payment error rates’
State agencies and some state legislatures are imposing stricter rules and requiring applicants to provide more paperwork documenting their income, expenses and the number of people in their household.
Caseworkers in states such as Arizona have reportedly been overwhelmed with the paperwork. Those seeking help have spent hours trying to get through on phone lines and have faced monthslong delays.
States are taking these steps to get ready for another change that will roll out in October 2027. At that point, many states will also have to cover up to 15% of the costs of benefits for the first time since the program began in the 1960s.
This cost is much larger than the administrative costs and could be staggering for many states.
How much a state pays will be based on its “payment error rate.” These error rates measure how much in benefits are paid above or below what families are actually entitled to based on their household size, income and expenses. It is calculated based on an in-depth review of a small sample of a state’s benefits payments each year.
These inaccurate payments are generally a result of mistakes on the part of the applicant or their caseworker – they rarely are the result of fraud. The payment error rate includes benefits paid to ineligible participants. It does not include payments never made to applicants who were eligible for benefits but wrongly denied them or incorrectly dropped from the program.
Supporters of SNAP argue that this makes states err on the side of denying benefits.
Range of rates
States with an error rate less than 6% won’t face new costs for benefits. But only nine states had rates that low in 2025.
States with an error rate between 6% and 8% will be responsible for 5% of the costs of their residents’ SNAP benefits. States with an error rate between 8% and 10% will have to cover 10%. States with error rates over 10% will have to cover 15%.
There’s a weird twist: If a state has an error rate over 13.32%, it won’t have to pay part of the cost of residents’ SNAP benefits for up to two years as they would have had it been in the 6% to 13.32% range.
Farm bill politics could play a role
To reduce their error rates, states need to invest in more staff, training, technology and better application and verification procedures. But states had little time to do all that. The states’ share of costs slated to kick in as of October 2027 is based on the error rates in the fiscal year that ended in September 2026.
Organizations representing state and local governments and social workers are pushing for an across-the board two-year delay.
What’s more, legislation known as the “farm bill,” which sets policies for agriculture, conservation and food-related assistance like SNAP, is now ensnared in the dispute. Democrats, whose support is needed to pass the legislation in the Senate, would like to see most of the new SNAP changes repealed.
Congress aims to pass a farm bill roughly every five years, but the most recent one, which was finalized in 2018, has expired.
Short of rolling back all the SNAP policy changes, many Democrats have refused to vote for the farm bill unless it includes a two-year delay for all states in shouldering part of the cost of SNAP benefits.
If the Democratic Party holds a majority in one or both chambers of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections, their leverage could increase in these negotiations.
The Republican Party’s version of the farm bill now pending in the Senate includes a one-year delay in the benefits-funding changes. But it would increase the states’ burden even more than the policy planned for October 2027. That’s a nonstarter for Democrats.
What states can do about all this
Meanwhile, there are many signs that a large share of the people who have lost their SNAP benefits are struggling to feed their families. More people, for example, are seeking help from food pantries and banks, which fear they will not be able to keep up with growing demand.
It’s hard to predict what might happen next.
SNAP’s higher costs could force states and counties to raise taxes, cut spending on other programs or find ways to reduce spending on SNAP.
Officials in some states are saying that they may find they need to drop the program altogether.
Because states lack the authority to change benefit amounts or do much to directly limit who qualifies for the program, I believe more states will be tempted to add red tape to lower their error rates, reduce the number of people getting benefits, or both.
Tracy Roof does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.