European Central Bank

Inflation heterogeneity across Austrian households. Evidence from household scanner data

01/26/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

It has been widely documented that households experience different inflation rates which are generally concealed in aggregate price indices. Using scanner data from a large household panel for Austria, we analyse price dynamics faced by individual households and try to explain the causes for the observed inflation differences. Considering not only consumption shares but also the specific product prices paid by households, we find a considerable and persistent degree of heterogeneity among household inflation rates.

Granular shocks to corporate leverage and the macroeconomic transmission of monetary policy

01/17/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We study how shocks to corporate leverage alter the macroeconomic transmission of monetary policy. We identify leverage shocks as idiosyncratic firm-level disturbances that are aggregated up to a size-weighted country-level average to generate a Granular Instrumental Variable (Gabaix and Koijen, forthcoming). Interacting this instrumental variable with high-frequency identified monetary policy shocks, we find that transmission to the price level strengthens in the presence of leverage shocks, while the real effects of monetary policy are unaffected.

Hawkish or dovish central bankers: do different flocks matter for fiscal shocks?

12/19/2023 European Central Bank Central banks

This column presents evidence on the role that US monetary policy plays in how fiscal spending affects the economy. A dovish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delays policy rate increases, while a hawkish FOMC tightens monetary policy more promptly, following increased fiscal spending. We show that the dovish response supports fiscal expansions. In contrast, the hawkish response results in a GDP decline but effectively controls inflation expectations.

Hawkish or dovish central bankers: do different flocks matter for fiscal shocks?

12/19/2023 European Central Bank Central banks

This column presents evidence on the role that US monetary policy plays in how fiscal spending affects the economy. A dovish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delays policy rate increases, while a hawkish FOMC tightens monetary policy more promptly, following increased fiscal spending. We show that the dovish response supports fiscal expansions. In contrast, the hawkish response results in a GDP decline but effectively controls inflation expectations.

Reports of AI ending human labour may be greatly exaggerated

11/28/2023 European Central Bank Central banks

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have been met with anxiety about the future of jobs. This article examines the link between AI-enabled technologies and employment shares across 16 European countries, finding that occupations potentially more exposed to AI-enabled technologies increased their employment share during the period 2010-19. This has been particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers.

Reports of AI ending human labour may be greatly exaggerated

11/28/2023 European Central Bank Central banks

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have been met with anxiety about the future of jobs. This article examines the link between AI-enabled technologies and employment shares across 16 European countries, finding that occupations potentially more exposed to AI-enabled technologies increased their employment share during the period 2010-19. This has been particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers.

Forecasting euro area inflation with machine-learning models

10/17/2023 European Central Bank Central banks

Inflation forecasts and their risks are key for monetary policy decisions. The strategy review concluded in 2021 highlighted how most Eurosystem models used to forecast inflation are linear. Linear models assume that changes in, for example, wages, always have the same fixed, proportional effect on inflation. A new machine learning model, recently developed at the ECB, captures very general forms of non-linearity, such as a changing sensitivity of inflation dynamics to prevailing economic circumstances.

Forecasting euro area inflation with machine-learning models

10/17/2023 European Central Bank Central banks

Inflation forecasts and their risks are key for monetary policy decisions. The strategy review concluded in 2021 highlighted how most Eurosystem models used to forecast inflation are linear. Linear models assume that changes in, for example, wages, always have the same fixed, proportional effect on inflation. A new machine learning model, recently developed at the ECB, captures very general forms of non-linearity, such as a changing sensitivity of inflation dynamics to prevailing economic circumstances.

The outlook is mixed: the asymmetric effects of weather shocks on inflation

10/10/2023 European Central Bank Central banks

Climate change has implications for price stability and the work of central banks. It may increase the volatility and heterogeneity of inflation, and hotter summers may lead to more frequent and persistent upward pressures on food and services inflation. Our empirical study provides evidence for the four largest euro area economies and outlines the relationship between temperature and inflation.

The outlook is mixed: the asymmetric effects of weather shocks on inflation

10/10/2023 European Central Bank Central banks

Climate change has implications for price stability and the work of central banks. It may increase the volatility and heterogeneity of inflation, and hotter summers may lead to more frequent and persistent upward pressures on food and services inflation. Our empirical study provides evidence for the four largest euro area economies and outlines the relationship between temperature and inflation.

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