European Central Bank

Beyond averages: heterogeneous effects of monetary policy in a HANK model for the euro area

08/04/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We introduce an estimated medium scale Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model for forecasting and policy analysis in the Euro Area and discuss the applications of this type of models in central banks, focusing on two main exercises. First, we examine an alternative scenario for monetary policy during the early 2020s inflationary episode, showing that earlier hikes in interest rates would have affected more strongly households at the lower end of the wealth distribution, whose consumption our model suggests was already depressed relative to the rest of the population.

Hand-to-mouth banks: deposit inflows and the marginal propensity to lend

08/04/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

In modern macroeconomics, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income shocks is a central object of interest. This paper empirically explores a parallel concept in banking: the marginal propensity to lend out of unsolicited deposit inflows (MPLD). Using county-level dividend payouts as an instrument for deposit inflows, I estimate the MPLD for U.S. banks and show that before QE, the average bank operated “hand-to-mouth” — it transformed approximately every dollar of deposit inflow into new loans, consistent with tight liquidity constraints.

Climate change, firms, and aggregate productivity

07/30/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper uses a general equilibrium framework to examine the effects of temperature on firm-level demand, productivity, and input allocation efficiency, deriving an aggregate damage function for climate change. Using data from Italian firms and detailed climate data, it uncovers a sizable negative effect of extreme temperatures on firm-level productivity and revenue-based marginal product of capital.

Back to school when times are bad? The role of housing wealth

07/30/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

College enrolment typically rises during recessions. This paper demonstrates that housing wealth destruction dampened this countercyclical effect in areas most affected by the U.S. housing bust of 2008-2011. By combining household data with a mortgage credit register and housing price data, we reveal that negative shocks to housing wealth significantly reduced college enrolment among homeowners relative to renters during this period. Up to 2% of the local college-age population did not pursue college enrolment at the height of the bust due to housing wealth destruction.

From words to deeds – incorporating climate risks into sovereign credit ratings

07/30/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We investigate the impact of climate risks on sovereign credit ratings worldwide. Our analysis shows that higher temperature anomalies and more frequent natural disasters – measures of physical risk – correlate with lower credit ratings. We find that long-term shifts in climate patterns (“chronic risk”) primarily affect advanced economies, while the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events (“acute risk”) matters more for emerging economies. However, the estimated impact of both types of risk on credit ratings is low and the economic effects are negligible.

Managing the risks of inflation expectation de-anchoring

07/29/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper investigates the implications of a potential loss of credibility in the central bank’s ability to bring inflation back to target in the medium-term (”de-anchoring”). We propose a monetary policy framework in which the central bank accounts for de-anchoring risks using a regime-switching model. First, we derive the optimal monetary policy strategy, which balances the trade-off between the welfare costs of a stronger response to inflation and the benefits of preserving the central bank’s credibility.

Tariffs across the supply chain

07/29/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

What are the macroeconomic impacts of tariffs on final goods versus intermediate inputs? We set up a two-region, multi-sector model with production networks, sticky prices and wages, and trade in consumption, investment, and intermediate goods. We show that import tariffs on final goods have a smaller negative impact on GDP compared to tariffs on intermediate inputs, as final goods can be more readily substituted with domestic alternatives.

Central bank independence and risk-taking at the zero lower bound

07/28/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Unprecedented balance sheet expansion in recent years has resulted in heightened financial risk for central banks, reflected initially in higher profits and subsequently in significant losses. Combining data on central bank balance sheets with market data on asset prices, we provide evidence on the evolution and determinants of financial risk-taking by 18 advanced economy central banks. Based on the estimated Value at Risk (VaR), we document that average central bank balance sheet risk increased to about 3 percent of GDP.

Climate change, firms and aggregate productivity

06/24/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Our paper uses a general equilibrium framework to examine the effects of temperature on firm-level demand, productivity and input allocative efficiency. Using data from Italian firms and detailed climate data, it uncovers a sizeable negative effect of extreme temperatures on firm-level productivity. Based on these estimates, the model generates aggregate productivity losses from local temperature fluctuations that are higher than previously thought, ranging from 0.60% to 6.82% depending on the scenario and the extent of adaptation.

Private safe asset supply and financial instability

05/27/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This article studies the supply of private safe assets by banks and its implications for financial stability. Banks originate loans and improve loan quality through hidden screening efforts. They can then create safe assets by issuing debt backed by the safe payoffs, from both loans they have originated and a diversified pool of loans from other banks. The interaction between banks’ screening efforts and diversification decisions determines the volume of safe assets they supply.

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