Central banks

FEDS Paper: Policy Rate Uncertainty and Money Market Funds (MMF) Portfolio Allocations

Samin Abdullah and Manjola TaseWe find that an increase in policy rate uncertainty is associated with an increase in MMF portfolio allocations towards assets with shorter-dated maturities. We also find that the direction of uncertainty matters: MMF portfolio maturity is more sensitive to uncertainty when it relates to changes in expectations for a larger increase or a smaller decrease in the policy rate than when it relates to changes in expectations for a smaller increase or a larger decrease in the policy rate.

FEDS Paper: Recession Shapes of Regional Evolution: Factors of Hysteresis

Hie Joo Ahn and Yunjong EoThis paper empirically investigates sources of hysteresis, focusing on downward nominal wage rigidity and the gender gap in the labor market, using U.S. state-level payroll employment data. Employing a Bayesian Markov-switching model of business cycles, we identify U-shaped and L-shaped recessions, which correspond to quick recoveries and hysteresis, respectively.

IFDP Paper: Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor Indicators

Ece Fisgin, Joaquin Garcia-Cabo, Alex Haag, and Mitch LottWe present a principal component analysis of euro area labor market conditions by combining information from 22 labor market indicators into two comprehensive series. These two novel indicators provide a systematic view of the current state and forward-looking direction of the euro-area labor market, respectively, and demonstrate superior forecasting performance compared to existing indicators.

From words to deeds – incorporating climate risks into sovereign credit ratings

We investigate the impact of climate risks on sovereign credit ratings worldwide. Our analysis shows that higher temperature anomalies and more frequent natural disasters – measures of physical risk – correlate with lower credit ratings. We find that long-term shifts in climate patterns (“chronic risk”) primarily affect advanced economies, while the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events (“acute risk”) matters more for emerging economies. However, the estimated impact of both types of risk on credit ratings is low and the economic effects are negligible.

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