Rochelle M. Edge and Dan LiThis paper proposes an approach to enhance the Federal Reserve's readiness to undertake market-functioning asset purchases during Treasury market disruptions.
Colin WeissI examine how governments have managed their holdings of gold and dollar reserves in recent decades, a period when gold’s share of aggregate international reserves rose and the dollar’s share fell. Using data on central banks’ reserve currency composition and official sector purchases of U.S. assets, I argue that gold reserve accumulation is generally not associated with de-dollarization of international reserves at the country level, except in a few prominent cases.
Professor Stephen Blyth has been appointed, and Dr Randall Kroszner reappointed, as external members of the Financial Policy Committee by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves
The Bank of England has today published a Discussion Paper on potential measures to enhance the resilience of the UK government bond (‘gilt’) repo market
The latest meeting of the Standards Advisory Panel (SAP)
Firms respond heterogeneously to aggregate fluctuations, yet standard linear models impose restrictive assumptions on firm sensitivities. Applying the Generalized Random Forest to U.S. firm-level data, we document strong nonlinearities in how firm characteristics shape responses to macroeconomic shocks. We show that nonlinearities significantly lower aggregate esponses, leading linear models to overestimate the economy’s sensitivity to shocks by up to 1.7 percentage points.
This paper investigates the relationship between public debt and the effectiveness of fiscal policy, presenting evidence of an inverse relationship between government debt and fiscal multipliers. To explain the results, I develop and calibrate a HANK model tailored to the U.S. economy. The model reveals that higher public debt diminishes fiscal multipliers by making households less constrained. Theoretically, I show intertemporal marginal propensities to consume (iMPCs) are sufficient statistics of public debt, influencing fiscal multipliers.
Hyung Joo Kim and Dong Hwan OhWe propose a novel estimation framework for option pricing models that incorporates local, state-dependent information to improve out-of-sample forecasting performance.
Marcos Mac Mullen and Soo Kyung WooThis paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of the unconditional variance of the RER and NT, respectively.
Friederike Niepmann and Leslie Sheng ShenHow do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolitical risk but continue lending to those markets through foreign affiliates—unlike their response to other macro risks.
