National/regional news and analysis

CPI Inflation, September 2021

10/20/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

CPI Inflation fell to 3.1% from the previous months 3.2%.  Inflation was expected to fall as there was a “base effect” of -0.4% as the increase in inflation in August-September 2020 dropped out (this spike of 0.4% was partly due to the rebound from the Eat Out to Help Out and VAT cut in August 2020).  However, in addition to this base effect, there was a significant element of new inflation, with prices rising by 0.3% between September and August. This followed from a very sharp rise of 0.7% in July-August.

How well do community evidence-based interventions scale up to other communities?

10/18/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

In a previous blog, we wrote about the importance of establishing an evidence base for interventions and identified funding as a key issue.  This has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.  How can services provide the best possible evidence-based interventions if the funding for service delivery and evaluation is not available? 

As furlough comes to an end, recruitment procedures are not fit for purpose for older workers

09/28/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

Johnny Runge (Senior Social Researcher, NIESR) & Rose Lasko-Skinner (Demos)
“I just feel that some people are of the opinion that you’re not fired up, you’re not ambitious. I think it’s hard for someone to understand that… I’m nearly 60, but I’m still ambitious.” – Interview participant, woman, 59, working in retail, Yorkshire and the Humber.

Covid economic recovery: US sprint, Italian marathon?

09/17/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

Our recently published Global Economic Outlook included an upward revision to our projections for global GDP growth this year and next.  Across countries, however, there is considerable divergence in the projected dates at which they will recover their pre-pandemic GDP levels.  Output has already recovered its level from before the pandemic struck in China and the US.  But the US is the only one of the G7 economies to have achieved that so far. 

CPI Inflation, August 2021

09/15/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

CPI inflation rose by a large amount (1.2%) and is now at 3.2%.  Part of this increase was due to the “base effect” of the 0.4% fall in inflation last year (July-August 2020) dropping out of annual inflation. The fall in July-August 2020 reflected the Eat out to Help out Scheme and the reduction in VAT for the hospitality sector. However, in addition to this was a very large element of new inflation, with prices rising by 0.7% between July and August.

CPI Inflation, July 2021

08/18/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

CPI inflation fell by a large amount (0.5%) and is now at 2.0%.  All of this effect was due to the “base effect” of the spike in inflation last year (June-July 2020) dropping out. There was no new inflation in June-July 2021 as the general level of prices remained constant. The reduction in inflation was spread across most sectors, the only exception being Transport, which showed a large month on month increase, largely due to motor fuels and second- hand car prices. Clothing and footwear also showed a significant decrease due to the July sales.

Effective COVID-19 policy is not only about public health, but also about economics

08/13/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

The COVID-19 crisis has upended the lives of many, causing almost 200M global infections to date, over 4M deaths and untold damage to the livelihoods of millions. Although the recent vaccine rollout in some parts of the world offers some room for optimism, the epidemic is still far from defeated and many in the developing world are still at significant risk of infection.

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