Ricardo's threads | Nothing contributes so much to the prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits

Firm-level R&D after periods of intense technological innovation: the role of investor sentiment

01/08/2021 BIS International

Following periods of intense technological innovation, R&D is a critical driver of technology diffusion, but it is subject to frictions that can lower it below the level firms would undertake otherwise. We study whether sentiment can counterbalance these frictions and thus strengthen the link between firm-level R&D and lagged aggregate innovation. We find a positive answer for low-tech firms, which represent the main conduit for technology diffusion.

The globalisation of inflation in the European emerging countries

12/22/2020 BIS International

This paper studies inflation globalisation in the European emerging countries by measuring inflation co-movement across the region and assessing how local inflation rates reacted to global factors.

Demographic shifts, macroprudential policies, and house prices

12/22/2020 BIS International

This paper investigates how recent demographic changes – population aging and the rising number of single-person households – affect house price growth using 95 district-level data in Korea from Q1 2008 to Q4 2017.

Forecasting expected and unexpected losses

12/21/2020 BIS International

In an application to quarterly US data on loan charge-offs from 1985 to 2019, we find that financial-cycle indicators – notably, the debt service ratio and credit-to-GDP gap – deliver reliable real-time forecasts, signalling turning points up to three years in advance.

Regulatory capital, market capital and risk taking in international bank lending

12/18/2020 BIS International

We investigate the links among US monetary policy, bank capital, and risk taking in international bank lending.

Bilateral International Investments: the Big Sur?

12/17/2020 BIS International

Using country-to-country data, this paper documents a set of novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance.

The Lockdown Weighted inflation CPILW for November 2020

12/16/2020 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

This blog is written by NIESR Fellow Huw Dixon. Any opinions expressed in the paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute

Summary
The CPILW fell slightly from 0.9% in October to 0.7% in November. The CPIH measure of inflation also decreased from 0.9% in October 2020 to 0.6% in November. Both measures indicate a fall in inflation in November.

From data reporting to data-sharing: how far can suptech and other innovations challenge the status quo of regulatory reporting?

12/16/2020 BIS International

From data reporting to data-sharing: how far can suptech and other innovations challenge the status quo of regulatory reporting?, FSI Insights No 29, December 2020.

Recessions and mortality: a global perspective

12/15/2020 BIS International

Using panel data covering 180 countries over six decades, this paper shows that recessions are systematically associated with higher mortality rates. During years when GDP falls, death rates rise, primarily in emerging market and developing economies and there among children in particular.

Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies

12/15/2020 BIS International

BIS Papers No 113, December 2020. Financial markets are an important component in the transmission of monetary policy and play a key role in fostering financial stability. Financial market development (FMD) aims at enhancing the capacity of the financial system to pool domestic savings and foreign capital in funding investment and consumption, and at enabling efficient risk-sharing. Deep and liquid markets promote transparent and efficient pricing of assets, ...

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