Contagion Accounting

We provide a simple and tractable accounting-based stress-testing framework to assess loss dynamics in the banking sector, in a context of leverage targeting. Contagion can occur through direct interbank exposures, and indirect exposures due to overlapping portfolios with the associated price dynamics via fire sales.

BIS Quarterly Review, December 2020

BIS Quarterly Review for December 2020: This Quarterly Review shows markets rebounded in November, but concerns about the daylight between valuations and the economic outlook persisted. Government bond yields stayed unusually low, supported by monetary accommodation, sustaining the search for yield. The relative performance of EME currencies partly reflected structural features of domestic economies.

What comes next? Recovery from an uneven recession

The effects of the Covid crisis have been felt unevenly across sectors, and the output of customer service industries could remain well below its pre-Covid trend for some time. Economies with large customer service industries could grow more slowly in the near term, even after accounting for the stringency of containment measures and the severity of virus outbreaks. Model projections suggest that large advanced economies could face a "98% economy" until constraints on customer service industries ease. The outlook for some economies, such as China, is more positive.

What share for gold? On the interaction of gold and foreign exchange reserve returns

Almost five decades after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, gold continues to form an important share of global foreign exchange reserves. This may be because gold has traditionally offered reserve managers many benefits, such as the absence of default risk. This paper explores whether these large investment shares in gold are also justified from a risk-return standpoint, or whether any other explanations have to be brought to bear.

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