Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies

BIS Papers No 113, December 2020. Financial markets are an important component in the transmission of monetary policy and play a key role in fostering financial stability. Financial market development (FMD) aims at enhancing the capacity of the financial system to pool domestic savings and foreign capital in funding investment and consumption, and at enabling efficient risk-sharing. Deep and liquid markets promote transparent and efficient pricing of assets, ...

The recession-mortality nexus and Covid-19

Countries with a stronger predicted GDP decline in 2020 have also seen a larger number of deaths in excess of official Covid-19 fatalities. Historical data show that recessions are systematically associated with higher mortality, especially in developing economies. Following a recession, death rates remain elevated for several years. The eventual death toll of Covid-19 may be understated if the impact of the pandemic-induced recession is neglected. Limiting the economic fallout of the pandemic could also reduce excess mortality.

The stochastic impact of extreme weather events

Global warming is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme or abnormal weather events (Herring et al, 2018, NASEM, 2016). In this note, we quantify the uncertainty of GDP outcomes resulting from abnormal weather events, considering both the initial destruction that is caused by the event as well as the boost to activity from the subsequent rebuild.
 

Contagion Accounting

We provide a simple and tractable accounting-based stress-testing framework to assess loss dynamics in the banking sector, in a context of leverage targeting. Contagion can occur through direct interbank exposures, and indirect exposures due to overlapping portfolios with the associated price dynamics via fire sales.

BIS Quarterly Review, December 2020

BIS Quarterly Review for December 2020: This Quarterly Review shows markets rebounded in November, but concerns about the daylight between valuations and the economic outlook persisted. Government bond yields stayed unusually low, supported by monetary accommodation, sustaining the search for yield. The relative performance of EME currencies partly reflected structural features of domestic economies.

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