USA

When business researchers analyze data, they often rely on assumptions to help make sense of what they find. But like anyone else, they can run into a whole lot of trouble if those assumptions turn out to be wrong – which may happen more often than they realize. That’s what we found in a recent study looking at financial data from about a thousand major U.S. companies.

Imagine it’s April 2025 and you’re the owner of a small but fast-growing e-commerce business. Historically, you’ve sourced products from China, but the president just announced tariffs of 145% on these goods. Do you set up operations in Thailand – requiring new investment and a lot of work – or wait until there’s more clarity on trade? What if waiting too long means you miss your chance to pull it off?

The president has pitched his trade policies at workers who feel left behind by globalization. But that doesn’t mean trade barriers will revive factories and close income gaps.

The resignation comes as President Trump has openly pressured the central bank to lower interest rates and called for Jerome H. Powell, the chair, to step down.