What will 2026 look like for the UK’s electric vehicle market?

Vivid Brands/ShutterstockIn the UK, as in many other countries, the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) has been rapid. Incentives, increased choice and some positive PR took the electric car sales to nearly 500,000 vehicles in 2025 – around 24% of the market. But the government’s budget in late November, which outlined new charges for EV owners, may have slammed the brakes on this momentum.

Risky collateral and default probability

We use a novel data set containing all corporate loans throughout the Eurozone to document a series of novel stylized facts on the relationship between collateral and the probability of default. First, we show that the pervasive empirical finding that riskier borrowers pledge collateral is driven by economists’ informational disadvantage relative to banks. Accounting for time-varying bank- and firm-specific risk factors produces negative correlations consistent with theory. Second, the relationship between pledging collateral and the probability of default is non-linear.

Risky collateral and default probability

We use a novel data set containing all corporate loans throughout the Eurozone to document a series of novel stylized facts on the relationship between collateral and the probability of default. First, we show that the pervasive empirical finding that riskier borrowers pledge collateral is driven by economists’ informational disadvantage relative to banks. Accounting for time-varying bank- and firm-specific risk factors produces negative correlations consistent with theory. Second, the relationship between pledging collateral and the probability of default is non-linear.

Climate change, bank liquidity and systemic risk

This paper examines the relevance of banks’ exposure to climate transition risk in the interbank lending market. Using transaction-level data on repo agreements, we first establish that banks with higher exposure to transition risk face significantly higher borrowing costs. This premium is a combination of a risk premium, compensating lenders for increased credit risk, and an inconvenience premium, reflecting the sustainability preferences of key dealer banks.

Pages

Subscribe to Front page feed